The Problem with Family Office Estimates
Here’s the thing: family offices are private, opaque, and don’t follow a one-size-fits-all model. This makes them incredibly hard to count.
- EY’s 2016 Family Office Guide estimated at least 10,000 family offices globally.
- Since then, estimates from Campden Wealth, IQ-EQ, UBS, Fintrx, With Intelligence, and KPMG have ranged from 3,500 to 20,000.
- Deloitte’s 2024 estimate of 8,030 family offices is one of the more precise figures, but even this is based on assumptions that might not hold up everywhere.
The root of the problem? There’s no standard definition of what a family office actually is. Some estimates focus on assets under management (AUM), using thresholds like 100 million or 250 million. Others look at the number of employees, the range of services offered, or whether it’s a single-family office (SFO) or a multi-family office (MFO).
This lack of consistency means that estimates vary wildly. For example, if you include smaller family offices with lower AUM, your market size will look much bigger than if you only count large, institutionalised SFOs.
What Even Counts as a Family Office?
The definition of a family office depends on who you ask. Here are some common criteria:
- Assets Under Management (AUM): Many sources use a minimum AUM threshold, often 100 million to 250 million. But this excludes smaller family offices that might still function as such, just with less wealth.
- Number of Employees: Some estimates require at least one full-time employee. This captures smaller offices but might miss those that outsource most of their functions.
- Types of Services: Some definitions focus on family offices that offer comprehensive services like investment management, estate planning, and philanthropy. Others include offices with a narrower scope.
- Structure and Ownership: SFOs serve one family, while MFOs serve multiple families. This distinction can significantly impact market size estimates, as MFOs tend to be larger and serve more clients.
The bottom line? The lack of a clear definition makes it nearly impossible to get a precise count.
What’s Driving the Growth of Family Offices?
Despite the confusion over numbers, one thing is clear: the family office market is growing, and that growth is accelerating. Here’s why:
- Rising Global Wealth: The number of high-net-worth (HNW) and ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) individuals is increasing worldwide. According to Wealth-X, there were 426,330 UHNW individuals in 2024, up from 395,070 in 2022.
- Complexity of Managing Wealth: As wealth grows, so does the complexity of managing it. Diversified portfolios, alternative assets, and specialized expertise are driving demand for family office services.
- Demand for Personalisation: Wealthy families want tailored solutions that meet their specific needs. Family offices, with their ability to offer highly customized services, are perfectly positioned to meet this demand.
- Emerging Markets: Rapid economic growth in regions like Asia-Pacific is creating new wealth and driving demand for family office services.
- Entrepreneurial Wealth: More successful entrepreneurs are establishing family offices to manage their wealth and plan for succession.
A Simple DIY Model for Estimating Family Office Market Size
If you’re curious about sizing the family office market, here’s a straightforward model you can use. Just adjust the assumptions based on your specific needs.
Step 1: Start with the UHNW Population
- According to Wealth-X, there were 426,330 UHNW individuals worldwide in 2024.
Step 2: Estimate How Many Use Family Offices
- Not all UHNW individuals use family offices. Some prefer traditional wealth managers or private banks, while others find their wealth isn’t complex enough to justify a family office.
- Let’s assume 60% of UHNW individuals don’t use family offices, leaving 170,532 who do.
Step 3: Project Growth
- Apply a CAGR to the remaining population. Assuming a 5% CAGR, the number of UHNW individuals using family offices would grow to 205,207 by 2028.
Step 4: Estimate SFOs and MFOs
- For single-family offices (SFOs), assume one family per SFO and that one-third of the group uses SFOs.
- For multi-family offices (MFOs), assume 10 families per MFO and that two-thirds prefer a shared structure.
Step 5: Calculate the Numbers
- In 2024, this would yield an estimated 56,844 SFOs and 11,369 MFOs.
| Year | Total UHNWI | # Using Family Offices | Estimated SFOs | Estimated MFOs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 426,330 | 170,532 | 56,844 | 11,369 |
| 2025 | 447,647 | 179,059 | 59,686 | 11,937 |
| 2026 | 469,029 | 187,512 | 62,504 | 12,501 |
| 2027 | 491,481 | 196,388 | 65,463 | 13,093 |
| 2028 | 514,055 | 205,207 | 68,402 | 13,680 |
Key Considerations
This model is a starting point, but it’s not perfect. The assumptions, such as the percentage of UHNW individuals using family offices and the average number of families per MFO, are hypothetical. You’ll need to adjust them based on your specific criteria.
Also, this model focuses on the number of family offices, not their AUM or the quality of their services. To estimate market size in terms of AUM, you’d need data on average AUM per family office.
Finally, qualitative factors – like family complexity, investment needs, and desired level of control – play a huge role in the decision to establish a family office. These are harder to quantify but are critical to understanding the market.
For a closer look at how the landscape takes shape in practice, explore our insights on the world’s largest family offices and the largest family offices in Europe.