Toby entered the UK property industry over thirty years ago. Back then, most families who had made money in the UK, say they’d sold their business for 10 or 20 million, were looking to make even more. Today, those same families are easily worth at least ten times. That’s partly due to inflation and partly because they’ve been prudent with preserving and growing their wealth.
Wanting to avoid the adage ‘from shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations’, Toby keenly notes that what he sees now among these families is a general sense of guardianship. They are more interested in preserving their wealth in safe bets that beat inflation, rather than taking aggressive risks.
The evolution
When Toby began his career in the 80s, the investment landscape in the UK mainly centred on local and US stocks. For most investors, property had a definite quota of 20% and the rest was stocks & shares or cash. In fact, he recalls how common it was for a stockbroker to “tip out of London, go down to somebody’s house in the home counties, sit and have a cup of coffee or a glass of wine while discussing whether to invest in ICI or Vodafone, a brand new company that’s selling amazing technology.”
In those days, the property market was hardly as exciting. Standard property leases were 25 years in the 1980s. Fully repairing and insuring leases, with upward-only rent reviews, meant landlords could expect stable, long-term income. “So, on the day you let that building, you could sit back in your armchair, send four invoices out a year and get your cheque back from a big company that was always going to pay you,” explains Toby.
The trends
Along with time came new trends and economic changes. When low interest rates were introduced, debt played a significant role in generating yields for investors. With a 3:1 debt-to-equity ratio, and debt costing 5-7% while yielding 7-9%, investors could easily achieve 14-16% returns. To illustrate that period, Toby notes how common it would be for property investors to politely brag, “Sitting at a dinner party amongst friends, you would say, ‘Look, I’m making 14% a year,’ and everyone would think Wow, that’s amazing, isn’t it? Well then, you’re a genius!”
Another trend he notes, which has been ongoing for approximately the past 15 years, is the “gold rush” in logistics. He states, “If you weren’t in sheds, as in warehouses, then you were just in the wrong sector of property.” And for the longest time, it was common wisdom that this was the only property sector poised for significant growth.
The changes
The boom in logistics brought about the tanking of retail space and the high street, which only accelerated when the pandemic hit. In addition, after the lockdowns, tenant profiles also turned from long-term leases to shorter leases lasting 5-9 years. Today, that change is evident in the rise of Airbnb, co-working spaces, and similar types of rental places, which are contributing to a more evolutionary period.
According to Toby, this shift has sparked new demand for short but regular income streams for investors. Sectors like hotels, nursing and care homes, short-stay accommodations, self-storage, and serviced offices are gaining traction. Once considered a secondary asset class, they are now replacing the traditional 25-year lease model. However, they require a more hands-on approach to operations and rely heavily on strong management teams.
Having waded through the industry for the past decades, he’s convinced of one thing: There will always be an exit opportunity in the UK, meaning there will always be buyers in the market to unlock gains or simply pass the baton to the next person.
The opportunities
Toby sees ample opportunities for family offices to both preserve and grow their wealth. Having watched the trends come and go, he narrows down the value of UK property to three intertwined factors: land supply, rental income, and capital growth. With a finite supply of land, the UK benefits from scarcity that supports rental income and capital growth. These factors collectively tend to determine a positive yield for investors.
For families looking for preservation, Toby points to the UK’s stable political and legislative environment as a key attraction. He also highlights the reliability of British property title deeds, which provide a sense of security for those looking to invest.
For families seeking growth, once-in-a-lifetime opportunities still exist. Consider the historical “gold rush” in logistics. While it caused a steep decline in retail, it now offers prospects for discerning investors. Toby highlights that in the current environment, M&S, which once paid £250 per foot for a high street location, would now pay only £10-£15 for the same space. This demonstrates how a shopping centre that cost £100 million to construct can now be acquired for £10-£15 million.
And so, why now?
“You can be the best meteorologist in the world, but it can still rain tomorrow when you thought it was going to be sunny,” Toby prefaces his prediction. However, despite all the noise from the headlines, he foresees a promising future for the UK property market. “I think we’re in for a pretty boring technologically and human activity-level for a few years, and I think that creates a good opportunity to invest in property,” he says.
He asserts that the coming years should foster a benign environment because the UK has undergone significant cultural and economic adjustments over the past three decades. These changes range from the invention of the iPhone, changing retail habits, and global communication to open trade, worldwide delivery chains, and the tech revolution between 2000 and 2020. Consequently, he thinks the next two decades will be less “eventful and demanding.”
While AI will be transformative, he doubts that it will impact property occupation as profoundly as the retail upheaval and COVID-19 affected shops, offices, and logistics. Not being dismissive, he acknowledges that AI will influence property occupation in two main ways. First, there will be an increased demand for data centres, which are large, energy-intensive facilities resembling sheds. Second, there is likely to be a decrease in the need for mass call centres, many of which had already become vacant as homes and automated systems (or ‘bots’) took over this function during COVID-19. Then, finally, he points out that even though Europe is seeing war, he does not believe that, relative to the rest of the world, the UK will suffer economically or as a society.
Patience over speculation
At Simple, we see the UK property market at a crossroads that favours patience over speculation. In times when headlines compete for attention, the quieter signals often carry the greatest weight. Land remains scarce, legal frameworks remain trusted, and opportunities exist where others only see decline. For family offices, this is less about timing the market and more about recognising the conditions that allow capital to endure and compound across generations.
Maritime Capital and Toby reflect a view that resonates with many of the families we work alongside: in a world of noise and volatility, the UK property market offers a rare moment where patience, prudence and perspective can quietly shape enduring wealth.
